10 Jun US Housing Market Predictions – Real Estate Market Forecast 2018 2019
Real Estate and Housing Forecast 2018, 2019, 2020
June 2018. Your Epic report and forecast of the 2019 US housing market offers facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.
This completely updated EPIC United States Housing Report is the most thorough update and prediction for 2018 to 2020, and other data to 2026. Please bookmark for coming fresh updates.
Lower Supply is Generating High Price Growth
A persistently strong economy, low unemployment, burgeoning Millennial buyers, and high savings rate, combined with low mortgage rates is making the housing market an inviting place for most home buyers. Unlike the coming China housing crash, the US housing market is stable and optimistic.
Home sales continued to fall in April and May but only due to shortages. Demand will push prices up higher in 2019. Check recent house prices in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Sacramento, Seattle, Houston, Miami, New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Orlando/Tampa.
Prices Will Rise Another 5% by 2019
According to new data released by NAR, home prices are still rising although a lack of listings are suppressing sales. It’s been 35 straight months of declines in homes for sale.
Sellers are demanding record prices while first time buyers can’t afford them or the prices of new housing stock being built. On a more positive note is growing listings and a booming US economy. That’s generated price rise forecasts of over 5% this year, or twice that of inflation and wage growth.
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In this updated report and housing forecast:
- Market update
- Hottest cities to buy
- NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market
- Home price update and predictions
- US economic outlook – Tradingeconomics data
- Urban Land Institute panel discussion Video
- Freddie Mac Forecasts
- Jobs report and forecast
- Interest rates and mortgage rates
- Apartment rental prices and forecast
NAR reports that existing home sales grew in April, 1.1% which is well up from the 1.2% loss 12 months ago. See the NAR charts below for others stats and which are the hottest markets for April.
Spring Market is Starting Strong
Resale home transactions rose 1.1% in March showing clealy that buyers are hungry to buy. However, listings have declined 7.2% and prices have risen 5.8% versus last March.
It’s a sellers market and it will be for some time. If you’re hunting for houses for sale, you’d better have an advanced search strategy.
The dwindling numbers of homes for sale should push prices upward in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Diego, Boston, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Seattle, New York, and Houston and in Florida. It’s all driven by a wildly successful economy and a resistance by local and state governments to support home development in their jurisdictions.
Please feel free to use this material on Linkedin and Facebook. It’s an important topic for buyers and sellers who face a big decision about buying a home or condo in 2018 as home prices and mortgage rates rise.
NAR’s March Update
Homes sales have risen for 2 months straight, however they’re down 1.1% from same time last year. Although prices haven’t hit the 2007 records, they are too high for most to afford even though wages have grown. Home prices are now running at double the average wage increase.
The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $250,400, up 5.8 percent from March 2017 ($236,600). March’s price increase marks the 73rd straight month of year-over-year gains — from NAR
March existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 6.3 percent to an annual rate of 680,000, but are still 9.3 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $270,600, which is 3.3 percent above March 2017 – from NAR update.
Housing inventory is the most influential and persistent factor affecting home prices. Despite this, the media and some politicians blame speculation, building costs, interest and mortgage rates, cost of living, and mortgage rules. When the economy is good people want homes. Construction is strong but can’t keep up. Simple rule of supply vs demand is driving home prices.
Looking for housing market predictions? Take a good look at prices, GDP, wages, jobs, and other key data below on the US Economy for the next 6 years and you may see a surprisingly positive picture, far from the dread of the recent stock market corrections.
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Should you Buy or Rent?
We all want to own a home, but does it make more sense to rent? If you can’t afford a home in New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Dallas, renting may be the only option. Here’s a few blog posts I’ve written on the US rental housing market, apartment prices, and on buying vs renting.
What’s Driving the California Housing Market?
Strong demand from an eager demographic and economy is clashing with local resident NIMBYism to create a volatile market. See the California housing report.
NAR’s VP of research Paul Bishop, predicts sales will be flat for all of 2018.
One of the biggest challenges is going to be in certain high-cost parts of the country where they have high home prices, relatively high property taxes or high state income taxes, then that’s ultimately going to make the cost of owning a home more expensive.
In addition, renters may lose the incentive to buy a home in high-cost areas if they can’t use the mortgage interest deduction or the ability to deduct some of those other housing-related costs from their taxes. It’s focused mostly on the higher cost areas. It’s certainly something that everyone will be monitoring and how the housing market reacts in 2018 and 2019 — from a news release on DSnews.com.
In this post, you’ll discover the hottest city markets, zip codes, get economic, employment, finance, and housing projections to understand the key fundamentals driving home buying, rental investment, home construction, and the real estate markets in 2018/2019 to 2026. Read thoroughly if you’re considering buying a house this year.
What’s the story for summer of 2018? It has to be Texas and Michigan, however the overall picture is of a very good spring and summer for the housing market nationwide and going forward to 2026. Population growth in San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, Miami, Houston, Sacramento, Philadelphia , Las Vegas and Phoenix continues strong.
The Complete Picture for 2018/2019
Ready to choose your realtor and buy a house or condo this year? The outlook is really rosy! And how about investing in a rental income property for sustained passive income? This current lull might make the next 3 months the best time to buy if you can find a home. The outlook is as positive as could be for buyers. Lock in your mortgage rate.
Overall, predictions and outlook for the US housing market are positive. That’s because the US economy is on its strongest roll ever, bolstered by lower taxes, improved trading agreements, growing American confidence, happiness, comfort, freedom and the American dream has been kindled again.
Take a look at more detailed reports of major US city markets: Latest Posts: Sacramento Housing Market | San Francisco Housing Market | Boston Real Estate Market 2018 | Florida Housing Forecast 2018 | Miami Housing Market | Los Angeles Real Estate Forecast | New York Real Estate Predictions | Houston Market Forecast | Houston Real Estate Forecast | Seattle Housing Report
Apartment Rental Housing Market 2018
Are you considering buying homes for sale as an income investment? With Apartment rent prices holding strong in 2018, it’s a solid investment strategy.
This graphic below courtesy of Trading Economics shows how the real estate market will be healthy for some time, and that buying a home is a wise investment (Tradingeconomics is a very informative site, have a visit afterward).
Increased government spending, low but slowly rising interest rates, and the repatriation of business and corporate funds back to the US means it’s a healthy, safe market for everyone.
Foreign investment has been strong because the world knows, the US is the place to be. American’s have always had a great attitude toward risk and business growth. Now the economy and business markets are allowing that spirit an opportunity to pay off.
NAR/Realtor Outlook on the Housing Market
|Housing Indicator||Realtor.com® 2018 Forecast|
|Home price appreciation||3.2% increase|
|Mortgage rate||Average 4.6% mortage rates in 2018 to 5.0% (30 year fixed) by year end|
|Existing home sales||2.5% growth, low inventory problem easing|
|Housing starts||3% growth in home building 7% growth in houses|
|New home sales||Growth of 7%|
|Home ownership rate||Stabilizing at 63.9% nationally|
Despite the market correction, experts feel this bull market could continue as long as business keeps coming back to the US. That’s a long process of repatriation. In the meantime, the jobs picture, wage growth, investment, and profit growth are giving real estate participants a lot of optimism.
The resistance to housing development is slowing. Conservatives are giving up amidst intense pressure by those facing outrageous housing shortages and skyrocketing rental prices.
Housing Shortages Won’t Ease
Although January’s sales were disappointing, it’s due to the severe shortage of housing. Demand is there and you’ll be competing against a hoard of buyers in 2018. Corelogic expects 2018’s home prices will grow 4.3% by next December. NAR and Realtors® expect only a 3% growth in prices this year. Nevada, Texas, Washington, and Florida are the states with the best outlook, and perhaps the best places to buy homes or rental properties.
The Bay Area, Portland, and Seattle areas saw the highest growth in prices last year while LA’stumbled. Listings fell dramatically in cental California, Oregon, Washington, and New York.
Consumer mood was not so good in July of last year, mostly due to government problems. Yet the market came flying back. These challenges overcome mean more Americans will have more confidence in their personal situation.
The US Economy 2018/2019
These stats from Trading Economics show positive fundamentals that will drive growth in the housing market, and in turn will bolster the economy, since new household consumer spending and housing investment is a key driver of the economy.
The tax cuts should help although the Fed is counteracting that growth with a questionable raising of interest rates which seems to have sparked the sudden stock market volatility. Although some disincentives are present for home buying in certain price ranges, that will help keep the market balanced for 2018.
Buyers and sellers will enjoy the market trends, stats, threats, and the key factors including housing construction starts described below. Enjoy the big picture!
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NAR Housing Report April 2018 with Lawrence Yun
Housing Demand 2018: More Buyers Joining the Party
Housing market demand predictions: Demand 2018 will see stronger demand as young buyers have more savings to invest in a home and are getting closeer to being able to purchase a home.
Housing demand is also being supplemented by bankruptcy survivors who waited out their 7 year exile joining first time buyer millennials, babyboomers, immigrants, foreign investors (Canadian and Chinese), and even gen Xers, all of whom are looking for houses for sale.
New Home Construction Starts: Still Strong in 2018
New home building shows continued strengths, and should pick up by late spring when builders see a return of demand. Last February’s demand was also subdued.
The cost of living is rising and it means workers and businesses in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, Miami, San Diego, and Boston may migrate to cheaper cities such as Philadelphia, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. This is where job growth is best and housing is cheapest.
The price of apartment rental in cities such as Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose Rents are extreme examples of the migration out of high priced areas. With limited housing and a strong economy, prices in San Francisco and the Bay Area cannot fall.
Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Building Supplies
Labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs are looming which could mean house prices will rise. With nowhere to go, homeowners are resisting selling. The hope that the resale market will come to the rescue might be unrealistic and and perhaps even fewer resale houses will be for sale. This fall, new home sales have been brisk as reported by the Commerce Department.
Mortgage Rates on the Rise
15 year fixed rate mortgages are still a bargain compared to historical averages. A home at these interest rates has to be considered a big savings, compared to the added price.
Houses For Sale – Should You Buy or Sell in 2018?
The forecasts and predictions for housing markets in Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco and the Bay Area, New York, Misami, Houston, Seattle, and San Diego etc. all suggest better times ahead. Will the China housing market crash result from American revival?
Housing Experts Predictions and a Lot More
Let’s start off with the newly released 2018 Forecast from Freddie Mac. The predict a good year ahead with a solid 5% growth in price. They note that the aging population could keep demand subdued although limited housing for sale should create upward price pressure.
Should buy or sell? See the specific market updates and predictions here: Los Angeles Real Estate forecast, San Francisco Bay Area forecast, New York Real Estate forecast, Philadelphia Housing Report , Boston Real Estate forecast, San Diego Real Estate forecast, Houston Texas Housing forecast, Seattle Real Estate forecast and the Miami Real Estate forecast. Bookmark this page for future monthly updates.
The need to refinance is low, homeowners aren’t too stressed out, and they’re using home equity to buy things which is good for the economy. Overall, Freddie Mac’s report is positive for 2018.
Home Sales Expect to Rise Nationally
Freddie Mac Predicts strong sales driven by moderating prices nationally.
And as this graphic from Freddie Mac’s report shows, price appreciation is much less than before the last recession.
Hottest Real Estate Markets This Past Summer
According to NAR’s latest report, San Francisco is again the hottest city, taking back the number one spot from San Jose. The hottest small city is Vallejo California, enjoying a spillover from the Bay Area market. Investors and buyers will be hard pressed to find buying opportunities are.
Silicon Valley prices will pressure businesses to look to cheaper cities such as San Antonio, Las Vegas, Houston, Austin, etc in 2018/2019.
Hottest Real Estate Markets in April 2018
Where are the hottest cities in the US? They’re all over this month and only 3 from California made the new top 20 list.
Hottest Cities for Investment Value
This chart from NAR shows where employment growth is strongest and the ratio of recent employment growth to homes being built. That’s a great stat for rental property investors looking for investment income in the best cities.
Compare that to wage growth and actual price appreciation. Again the Bay Area shows the best outlook for employment which has to be your top signal. However, rising oil and gasoline pricesand predictions for more, Texas may be your hottest state going through the summer.
Salt Lake City, Denver, Tampa, Dallas, Cape Coral/Naples, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Houston, San Diego, and Grand Rapids have great employment outlooks.
|20 Hottest Housing Markets, January 2018 (Realtor.com)||Rank (December)||Rank Change||Current Home Prices|
|San Francisco, CA||2||1||$1,249,000|
|San Jose, CA||1||-1||$875,000|
|Colorado Springs, CO||4||0||$270,000|
|San Diego, CA||6||0||$590,000|
|Santa Rosa, CA||7||1||$310,000|
|Los Angeles, CA||16||2||$759,000|
|Santa Cruz, CA||27||9||$909,000|
|Boise City, ID||26||6|
Best cities for finding houses for sale and get a great return. For property investors or buyers with minimal cash, the cities of Kennewick, Detroit, Fort Wayne, Modesto, Fresno, and Waco look to offer the lowest prices on houses for sale. As usual, California and Texas lead the way, however Michigan is looking good with the President’s intention to bring the auto industry and related jobs back to the US.
In some markets such as California, home prices have leveled off a little from their relentless climb. There is a slight risk of a burst housing bubble. Outside of major city markets, the price growth potential in the next 5 years is highest. Some cities are hurting so invest carefully. Take a look at the best cities to invest in real estate and share your stories of which cities we should know about.
Here Panelists from the Urban Land Institution discusses 2017 and the next two year outlook:
Here’s 8 Reasons Why People Are Still Eager to Buy Real Estate:
- home prices are appreciating and it’s a safe investment over the long term
- millennials need a home to raise their families
- rents are high giving property owners excellent ROI on rental properties
- flips of older properties continue to create amazing returns
- real property is less risky (unless you get over leveraged)
- the economy is steady or improving (although Trump’s letting his enemies cause too much friction)
- foreigners including Canadians are eager to own US property
- bankrupt buyers are over their 7 year prohibition from the last recession and they can buy again.
Latest real estate market reports:
There are more renters now than in the last 30 years.
US homes are at their highest value ever
Foreign buyers buying record number of properties
Housing starts more than expected but not enough to fill demand
New Houses for sale dropped 3.4% in August
Resale houses for sale drops in August
Read on to learn more about the economic fundamentals that suppport your purchase of real estate:
Buying and Selling — Is This the Right Time?
Are you selling your home? Speculation of a housing crash in Miami, State of Florida, Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Charlotte, San Diego, San Jose, Denver, Seattle, and many other overheated markets has more people listing their house or condo. Yet, the market is healthy, so there’s no emergency. Prices are stable so you won’t get much more by waiting.
Check out these other posts for homebuyers, investors, and realtors:
How to Sell Over Asking Price | 14 Ways to Improve Your Selling Price | When Should I Sell My Home? | Student Housing Investment | 10 Tips for Home Sellers Who Must Have the Best Price | Home Sellers Pricing Strategy | Better House Market Evaluation
Housing experts are predicting existing home sales of 6 to 6.5 million units in 2018 and then above 1.3 million new homes being built per month to 2024. The building is resuming now that the hurricanes and forest fires are over.
Will it be enough to support the economy? When American builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen, however 1.5 million units per month is needed to fill forecasted demand for housing.
What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2018, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2017 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.
From Los Angeles to New York to Miami – Rental Property Equity/Income is King
Interest in rental income investment and apartments is particularly strong now in places like Miamic, Dallas, Seattle and San Francisco. The Los Angeles housing, San Diego housing, San Francisco Bay Area housing markets are just a few to look at. Seattle, Denver, Dallas, South Florida, Palm Beach, Philadelphia and New York have a promising outlook too.
Short list of positive factors to bolster US Housing Market :
- moderately rising mortgage rates
- president Trump’s new tax plan
- low risk of a housing bubble / crash for most cities
- millennials buyers coming into the main home buying years
- a trend to government deregulation
- labor shortages pushing up costs of production and incomes
- the economy will keep going – longest positive business cycle in history
Check out the report on investments in rental property if you’re planning to buy in markets such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, Silicon Valley, New York, Miami, Oakland, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver etc. Buyers are still dreaming in California a good look at the San Diego Real estate market, and the Los Angeles real estate market as economic indicators, and a fresh look at mortgage rates. To be on the safe side, see this post on the likelihood of a US housing market crash in the years ahead. Looking to put your house up for sale in 2018? Find a Realtor now.
Housing Stats from NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics
These stats below are collected from top research and reporting companies including NAR, Forisk, Trading Economics, and other real estate market researchers.
Sharing is Good for your Social Health!
Pass this blog post onto your friends and neighbors because they should know as much about the forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell. It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful!
Expert Predictions – US Housing
1. Expert Prediction from Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling (VeroForecast) — The top forecast markets shows price appreciation in the 10% to 11% range. The top forecast market is Seattle, Washington at 11.2%, followed by Portland, Oregon at 11.1% and Denver, Colorado at 9.9%.
These economies have robust economies, growing populations and no more than two month’s supply of homes. In fact, the forecast of the Boston market increase sharply to 7.4% is due to reductions in inventory and unemployment. On the other hand, the worst performing market is Kington, New York with 2.5% depreciation, followed by Ocean City, New Jersey at -2.1%, Kingsport, Tennessee at -1.9% and Atlantic City, New Jersey and San Angelo, Texas tied at -1.4%. —BusinessWire
2. Pantheon Macro Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson explains that “Homebuilders behavior likely is a continuing echo of their experience during the crash. No one wants to be caught with excess inventory during a sudden downshift in demand. In this cycle, the pursuit of market share and volumes is less important than profitability and balance sheet resilience.” — Marketwatch.
Housing Construction Starts Will Slowly Rise
It’s predicted that new home construction won’t keep up with demand, however it is recovering and we’ll see more renters becoming homeowners over the next decade.
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If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crash? House Renovation too is at an all time high in expenditure and this might have an impact on new housing starts.
FRED – Home Prices
US Mortgage Rate Trends
US Mortgage rates are forecast to stay low. Yet recently, mortgage rates have risen above the 4% mark and homeowners are locking in their home loans at the 30 year period. Some are calling this the Trump Effect. With Trump in power, lending requirements are expected to be eased, land opened up for development, and this should stimulate home purchases.
With employment growing and wages moderating upward, the 2019 housing market is set for growth. Yet, some housing forecasters still cling to the idea that housing starts will moderate after strong growth to 2020.
US Employment Outlook 2018 to 2024
According to BLS the job outlook is positive. Construction added 36,000 jobs in January, with 226,000 more than last year, with most of the increase occurring among specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Residential building construction trended up by 5,000 jobs. Total employment should grow by another 4,000,000 to 2024.
|National Employment Growth||Employment||Growth Predictions, 2014–24||Median annual wage, 2014|
|Total, all occupations||150,539,000||160,328,000||9,788,900||6.5||$35,540|
Job Growth by Occupation to 2026
2016 National Employment Matrix title and code (Chart data courtesy of BLS
Median annual wage 2016
|Total, all occupations||156,063.80||167,582.30||11,518.60||7.4||$37,040|
|Personal care aides||2,016.10||2,793.80||777.6||38.6||$21,920|
|Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food||3,452.20||4,032.10||579.9||16.8||$19,440|
|Home health aides||911.5||1,342.70||431.2||47.3||$22,600|
|Software developers, applications||831.3||1,086.60||255.4||30.7||$100,080|
|Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners||2,384.60||2,621.20||236.5||9.9||$24,190|
|General and operations managers||2,263.10||2,468.30||205.2||9.1||$99,310|
|Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand||2,628.40||2,828.10||199.7||7.6||$25,980|
|Waiters and waitresses||2,600.50||2,783.00||182.5||7||$19,990|
|Accountants and auditors||1,397.70||1,537.60||139.9||10||$68,150|
|Market research analysts and marketing specialists||595.4||733.7||138.3||23.2||$62,560|
|Customer service representatives||2,784.50||2,920.80||136.3||4.9||$32,300|
|Landscaping and groundskeeping workers||1,197.90||1,333.10||135.2||11.3||$26,320|
|Maintenance and repair workers, general||1,432.60||1,545.10||112.5||7.9||$36,940|
|Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers||1,871.70||1,980.10||108.4||5.8||$41,340|
|Elementary school teachers, except special education||1,410.90||1,514.90||104.1||7.4||$55,800|
|Stock clerks and order fillers||2,008.60||2,109.60||100.9||5||$23,840|
|Teachers and instructors, all other||993.9||1,091.80||98||9.9||$30,110|
|Receptionists and information clerks||1,053.70||1,149.20||95.5||9.1||$27,920|
|Sales representatives, services, all other||983||1,077.90||94.9||9.7||$52,490|
|Business operations specialists, all other||1,023.90||1,114.30||90.3||8.8||$69,040|
|Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses||724.5||813.4||88.9||12.3||$44,090|
US Housing Starts to 2024
This enlightening stat in the graphic below shows the US economy hasn’t recovered from the great recession and housing crash of 2007. Single family spending is rising rapidly, yet no one believes conditions for high inflation exist. It points to years of solid, healthy growth ahead with an unfulfilled demand for single detached homes.
Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca
Graphic courtesy of paper-money.blogspot.ca
Housing and Interest Rate Forecast to 2019
|Housing Activity (000)|
|Total Housing Starts||928||1,001||1,107||1,177||1,204||1,246||1,299|
|New Single Family Sales||430||440||503||561||610||647||693|
|Existing Single-Family Home Sales||4,475||4,338||4,627||4,828||4,978||5,029||5,119|
|Federal Funds Rate||0.13%||0.13%||0.38%||0.63%||1.13%||1.88%||2.38%|
|90 day T Bill Rate||0.06%||0.03%||0.05%||0.32%||0.96%||1.71%||2.22%|
|One Year Maturity||0.13%||0.12%||0.32%||0.61%||1.20%||2.41%||2.70%|
|Ten Year Maturity||2.35%||2.54%||2.14%||1.84%||2.38%||2.82%||3.22%|
|Freddie Mac Commitment Rates:|
|Fixed Rate Mortgages||3.98%||4.17%||3.85%||3.65%||4.10%||4.54%||4.96%|
Data are averages of seasonally adjusted quarterly data and may not match annual
Chart stats courtesy of Nahb.com
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Employment Outlook: Let’s not forget jobs. Total employed persons in the US will grow 800,000 over the next 2 years.
Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecastExisting homes or resale home sales, may slow slightly but US construction spending will increase. Prices will rise to 2020 and construction spending will grow through 2020.
Graphic courtesy of tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast
Apartment Rental Forecast
Demand for apartment rentals is on the rise and construction starts of multi-unit dwellings is rising to match demand. That creates more opportunity for rental property investors to grow their portfolios in 2018. Yardi says YOY rent growth was 3.0% and they expect rent growth to remain in the 2.5% range.
Cities with the most apartment construction include Dallas, Houston and Austin, reflecting Texas strong recovery. For more information, see this post on the best cities to buy real estate and best cities to live in and with the best job outlook.
Rental City Markets with Top Growth
Yardi released its winter national outlook report and forecasts a 2.5% increase.
There you have a quick graphical synopsis of factors that will support a strong US housing market for 4 more years.
What’s Your Personal Real Estate Sales Forecast?
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